Trade war fears have de-escalated especially between US and China.
Summary of events:
- President Trump had previously threatened to impose tariffs of upwards $150 billion to combat Chinese goods
- Beijing has followed threats to retaliate if such tariffs are imposed
- Over the weekend, US and China agreed to drop tariff threats
- China has agreed to import more from the US, but no mention of the $200 billion figure
The US dollar is expected to experience another bullish week ahead as the trade talks favors the demand for dollars in becoming more export oriented. There’s not that many pairs I’m watching for the week ahead, but here are the key ones below.
Over on the EURUSD Daily:
- Not much going on here, daily levels are continued to be respected.
- Next major target for support is at the 1.173~ price level.
- Currently, I don’t have any expectations of trading this pair until that level is tested.
- Aside from the expected daily and weekly downtrend, trend scalping this pair last week was very favorable and is expected to continue.
- Currently, we await the market open test of the lower boundary. A break lower will signal further selling pressure for the week ahead.
- Over on the weekly time-frame, this pair is currently experiencing a monstrous uptrend.
- However, over on the daily, the last bar ended with a doji as buyers exited their position prior to the weekend close.
- Over on the 12-hour, price could retrace to the 110.21~ level. Further bullish sentiment expected if this level holds up strong.
- For the week ahead, I’m definitely looking to be trend scalping USDJPY.
- Lower timeframes are a bit more chaotic due to disappointing Core Retail Sales release.
- Over on the weekly, this pair is testing a rather weak resistance at the 1.2925~ level.
- Last week’s inside candle provides a little bit of a mixed sentiment, but US trade stance should favor the US dollar more.
- While it’s too early to tel if it’s a trend change, but Friday’s sell-off must be discounted for end of week position close outs.
- Over on the 4-hour, my moving averages are still tightly overlapping signaling topping off, but not yet confirming the bearish momentum.
These are the pairs I’m currently monitoring for the week ahead.