Post-NFP analysis and trades in review

The U.S. Dollar made a slight recovery earlier today on stronger than expected Non-Farm Payroll figures. Trump tweeted the strong employment figures and also “Many job stifling regulations continue to fall. Movement back to USA!” Regardless, the technicals have yet to point to a stronger dollar in the long run.

Summary of events:

  • 209k jobs added in the U.S. and continues to remain at a 4.3% low
  • Canadian employment change at 10.9k less than the expected 12.5k
  • Canadian unemployment rate also ticked down to a 6.3% low

An also interesting bit by ForexLive indicated a drastic in CAD longs in the Commitment of Traders report. This would continue to be an interesting pair to watch for next week.

cot

This is the second week the Canadian Dollar has reported net longs since March earlier this year. Nevertheless, I would be looking at the Canadian Dollar on a pair by pair basis.

CADJPY: sell-off on daily time-frame expected to continue

 

cadjpy01

This is one of the pairs I am holding through the weekend as it continues to exert a bearish outlook over on the longer term time-frame. This pair has been ranging for approximately two weeks after a three week bull run at the end of May of this year.

Even after today’s Canadian unemployment rate and employment change figures, this pair traded higher and ultimately closed lower. I currently have a Fibonacci retracement plotted to monitor the key 86.40~ and 85.40~ price levels for potential reversals. For the time being, I see CADJPY as good to hold short for the week ahead.

EURGBP: continue holding long

eurgbp01

My EURGBP long position is still holding up with half the losses faded from this morning’s release. On market open next week, I would plot the 0.9~ level as a relative low and adjust my stop loss accordingly with the intention of making this a much longer term buy and hold play.

Stay tuned for next week’s trade setups!

 

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