This week has been rather quiet for the Euro. On Tuesday, Germany month over month manufacturing productions figure showed a 4.9% growth in new purchase orders up from -0.3% in the previous month.
I already completed a breakout trade long entry last night on the Italian referendum vote recovery. This pair has continued to rally since then, which I take it as a sign of fresh orders either covering the supposedly 100% priced in rate hike U.S. Dollar longs or fresh Euro longs.
*See very bottom for various coverage of rate hike expectations
Post-referendum, the Euro made a full recovery signalling short positions were covered ad we can expect further upside. After a slight correction, this pair entered into a trading range and now sitting at the peak of a breakout.
My trade is currently setup is with a stop loss halfway through the breakout range in case price reverts back in. The take profit is set just under a supply origin over on the 4-hour time frame.
Further U.S. Dollar downside is expected given the rate hike anticipation. Provided that Yellen delays the hike, it signals continued inflationary concerns and that the economy is not yet ready for growth controls. Similarly, U.S. Dollar long positions are expected to be sold off following even a conservative rate hike. I view the downside potential much greater than any possible upside.
Rate hike coverages