Stronger NFP shows no sign of deterring recession scares

Just last Friday, the U.S. Non-Farm Payroll figures came out to adding 242,000 jobs beating the 190,000 market expectations. While job losses continue in the mining sector, employment gained the most in the health care, social service, and retail trade sectors.

Despite the stronger figure February figures along with a 5-year low unemployment rate a 4.9%, U.S. Dollar pairs show no indication of strength. In fact, most of these USD pairs reacted little to the NFP figures and continued to sell-off.

Most notably, USDCAD reached a January, 2016 high of 1.45~ and showed no signs of sustaining this level.


Here we can see a breakdown of the key 60 period exponential moving average. Buyers have been adding to the USDCAD positions since 2012 and have begun closing off their initial positions. The strong Non-Farm Payroll and Unemployment Rate figures did not do this pair any favors.


Not much technicals for this pair, but I have been looking to short  this pair for quite some time now. The neckline break down is a good indication of a major trend change. Given how price struggled to break the 124~ mark with very little reaction from the strong Non-Farm Payroll figures, I figure U.S. Dollar strength must be dying down.

Aside from the weakening strength of the U.S. Dollar, I am looking at two potential breakout trades. The first is over on NZDUSD. While this pair has remained bearish for the past two years, I would hold off on any potential trades.


Despite the heavy selloff mid-2014, this pair has been going under heavy consolidation under recent weeks. I would recommend waiting to see how this breakout occurs before any major position trades.


Despite being a very good short position trade, EURUSD has also been much more chaotic in the recent months. This can be observed in the consolidating nature on on the weekly time frame.

As of the moment, both EURUSD and NZDUSD are on my watchlist. I am not looking to placing any major trades on these two pairs as of yet.



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