Are we any closer to a U.S. rate hike?

Last Friday, the November’s Non-Farm Payroll release came out at 8:30 a.m. Employment rose by 211K and the average hourly earnings month over month also saw a 0.2% increase. 

Both figures supposedly point to an increased likeliness in the a December rate hike where the Feds are expected to make an announcement around the 14th or 15th.

According to Bloomberg, investors see a “78 percent probability it will lift rates by a quarter percentage point from near zero”.  Is it about time? As this week is nearing an end, we are beginning to see the U.S. Dollar recovering from its earlier losses.

I am currently looking to short into most of the U.S. Dollar pairs right now after seeing a strong rally on USD quote pairs.


EURUSD has remained quiet in the afternoon session, but we are expecting sell-offs to pick up into the evening and night. I am currently watching this pair live and have shorted, possibly pre-maturely, but my intentions are actually from observing the other USD quote pairs.

GBPUSD has started selling off early. However, this could be for a slightly different reason.


The Bank of England has decided to hold interests lower due as concerns that lower oil prices would put a damper on inflation. Lower oil prices has become an even greater concern as OPEC effectively abandoned the daily 30 million barrels per day production output last week. Oil prices are expected drop lower. This was touched upon in my last post in regards to an attempt to retake market share away from the U.S. producers.


USDJPY recovered earlier this evening, but it still faces several key levels before we can safely resume its bullish trend. Ever since early November, this pair was suck in the 122.30 to the 123.80 range with a significant break lower just a day earlier. The price is at a crucial point right now. Depending on how price reacts to this 122.30 level, it may continue the break lower or resume its longer uptrend. For now, I would leave this pair as a monitor while I have entered into EURUSD AND GBPUSD.


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