After quite a stall the past few days, the sell-off for AUD has resumed against the New Zealand dollar, Japanese Yen, and Swiss Franc. I exclude the AUDCAD pair as both are rather bearish at the moment with a break-out below the triangle wedge formation.
Is it too late to be trading this pair? Although this pair broken below the multiple lows, it is best to avoid shorting this pair. The first reason is because of the negative swap rate. This means that it is best to enter a trade right before the move. Also, this pair has tested this trendline 5 times so far. Price is likely to retrace back to this trendline before continuing the trend. Probability wise, it is safer to be entering the trade closer to the trendline.
The next three pairs are still very good short trades. I would hold these trades for shorter term moves. Once again, I would rather make several re-entries than holding it all the way through.
I entered this trade a while before making this post. Clicking a button is, of course, faster than typing out the reasons. Nevertheless, this pair looks very promising because of the upper candlestick tails. This shows that buyers have been trying to push the price higher, but this failed to hold up. Due to this, along with the trend continuation, I shorted it this pair with a profit target to at just a tad above 1.0000~.
Similarly, I entered in AUDCHF and AUDJPY trades. I admit the AUDCHF trade does not look like a solid setup. This is because of the ranging nature for the past several hours. This trade was based off of trading the top of the range as shown.
Also AUDJPY shares a similar pattern. I was a bit late entering into this trade, but still see sufficient movement.
This pair has a much noticeable counter-trend move. Sellers were able to push the price lower in less than half the time to reach the 91.20~ relative high. Clearly there is quite a bit of selling going on so why not join in on the move?