Been pretty occupied lately, but have no fear as these trade setups are still good to go. The markets were awfully quiet post-NFP and it looks like activity is just picking up again. Right now, I have four trades set up for the long run.
The EURUSD and NZDUSD shorts were entered a while back. I got quite a bit of negative swap accumulation on the EURUSD right now. After the Non-Farm Payrolls release, not much activity was going on with this pair. My trade entry was based on the overall bearish sentiment. I expect another movement to come as it breaks out from the upwards channel or wedge, whichever you prefer. Is this considered a breakout? This is entirely up to how you define a “breakout”. To me, all I care about is seeing that the counter-trend move is over and expect a continuation once again.
Similarly with the NZDUSD, I see the same thing. With this pair, I am looking highs. However, this was also a premature trade selling as price moved away from the second high. It was a bit unexpected for the third top, but nevertheless only 31 pips till break even. Originally, I was down 78 pips from this trade, but I expect this trade to hold out. A potential supply zone is at lower bound 0.75363 to upper bound 0.75813. Stop loss has been placed accordingly to give a chance for the price to react to this zone.
These two trades can be considered swing trades. I expect to hold them out until another counter-trend movement forms, which I doubt will be some time. It is not too late to take these entries.
The USDJPY trade came yesterday actually. This pair was “watch” status for me as it was just ranging for quite a while now. I missed the initial spike up from the NFP release, but found another entry point. The horizontal trendline marks a resistance turned support level. Sometimes these levels do not hold, but this case is special. This level was also a potential supply zone, which the price broke through and rested above it.
Finally, XAGUSD, a silver CFD, was a short. Despite the activity in gold and crude, I am still bearish with a much tighter stop loss as it is too fundamentally driven. A bearish trend formed starting January 26 and so I am just trading off of this trend movement. If you are thinking of entering this trade, watch it closely as the last lower low was not significantly lower than the lower low before that.
EURUSD – Sell: +19.8 pips
NZDUSD – Sell: -33.5 pips
USDJPY – Buy: +77.6 pips
XAGUSD – Sell: +13.50 pips
Net: +77.4 pips.
Definitely not too late for the EURUSD trade, XAGUSD has a good reward to risk ratio. As it stalls at the trendline, you can limit your risk to as soon as it breaks with very good upside potential. The sell-off since January 26 is only half of the previous uptrend.